Werribee & Local Suburbs House Prices 101

Welcome to our blog; Werribee & Local Suburbs House Prices 101

This blog will always contain information regarding house prices within the Wyndham LGA; we will be blogging house prices and ONLY house prices as they relate to the postcodes and local suburbs of Wyndham. The postcodes are 3030,3029 and 3024. The main local suburbs we will blog on are Werribee, Hoppers Crossing and Wyndham Vale. Werribee (3030) includes Werribee South, Point Cook and the newer estates around River Park Estate area. Hoppers Crossing (3029) includes Tarneit, Truganina and the newer estates in Tarneit North. Wyndham Vale (3024) includes Manor Lakes and the newer estates to the west that are quickly growing towards the Yea Yangs and along Ballan Road.

We will NOT specifically discuss the general economic conditions, we will NOT discuss selling methods, ‘the five biggest mistake sellers make’ or the tourist attractions in our local area. We are simply not interested in those types of blogs and more generally types of websites that the national real estate agencies use on the premise that ‘bigger means we are better’. This blog will not be featuring yet another photo of the Werribee River Cliffs or the Werribee Mansion.

Follow us and we will keep you up to date with house prices in your local area; are they going up, down or staying the same.

Do not be surprised when you see our data is not lock-step with what the general media are saying. We are not interested in ‘pumping’ the local market and telling you how great the current market is for selling your house, unless of course these facts are true and can be supported with data relevant to our local suburbs.

Please read on for the latest entry………..

Post code 3030 is partially following the latest national market trends. We can see a dramatic decline in the number of older listings with most listing numbers in the over 60 days on market displaying almost a 50% fall in numbers. It is fair to expect a corresponding increase in asking price and resulting actual sale prices to follow. SQM Research state there is a nation wide situation of buyers outnumbering sellers. Whilst houses are certainly following this trend it is noteworthy to see unit prices are yet to attain selling prices equal to this time last year. Our opinion on the market in ‘older Werribee’ is very positive and unless we see a large national setback old Werribee in particular will see sustained prices rises over the coming not only months but years.

Post code 3029 is certainly offering lots of choice for home buyers. We can see an inconsistent sales trend in the sale numbers occuring in older listings of more than 60 days. Approx. 20% reduction in listings in the category of ‘over 180 days’, and much bigger reductions in the 40% range, consistent with national property trends in the categories ’60-90 days’ and ’90-180 days’. With the exception of December 2020 and January 2021 every month since June 2020 has had over 1,000 new listings come to market. The sales funnel for post code 3029 is working very efficiently with large numbers of listings coming to market but equally now seeing large numbers of older listings being purchased. We predict strong price growth for properties within the Hoppers Crossing segment of this postcode.

Post code 3024 is the only local postcode not showing an asking price increase over the 12 months May 2020 to May 2021 for houses. We have compared the last 12 months listing performance of 3024 to that of 3030.

3030 Total listing numbers have declined by 28% 3024 Total listings numbers declined by 13%

3030 New listings U/60 days increased by 21%….. 3024 New listings U/60 days increased by 16%

3030 Listings Ov/60 days decreased by 21% 3024 Listings Ov/60 days decreased by 16%

So, comparing May, 2020 to May, 2021 for the two post codes there are (i) available property numbers for sale are less in 3024 compared to 3030; (ii) there are less new listings for sale in 3024 compared to 3030; (iii) there are fewer old listings for sale in 3024 compared to 3030.

Are there also less buyers looking to purchase in post code 3024? We cannot answer that question. Given the low numbers shown above, if I was listing a premium product in this postcode I would be suggesting to Sellers to ask above perceived sale prices and be prepared to wait for the right buyer. Why? The market is quieter in 3024 and as a result there will be fewer quality properties to compete with, looking for the buyer wanting a/ to live in the area, and b/ wanting an above average house to live in.

We have updated this page with a great amount of new data over the last two days. We hope you find it useful and informative. In the section immediately below are the very latest data from SQM Research on prices in our local suburbs as at April 20th, 2021. There are really positive signs coming through; particularly when you see all the green coloured numbers for postcode 3030. Postcode 3029 will surpass same month last year when several more weeks of sales data are added. Postcode 3024 has seen a week and a month where asking prices have subsided just a little but given the recent strong growth within the property market in our western LGA this will be only temporary. The new data featuring below the top, first section is a departure from our regular formats and allows our readers to see more data, over a longer time period. We feel this will assist with putting our current Werribee and local suburbs property prices and listing numbers in an historical context. The standout data concerned postcode 3030 showing very low listing numbers and continued asking price increases. This was put into practical terms for me when an older person wishing to downsize from a 4 bedroom home in Tarneit for which she still has a sizeable mortgage mentioned she will not be able to afford the new accommodation she is looking for in 'old' Werribee. The original areas of Werribee say up until 1970's are fast becoming a very attractive investment. Wyndham City Council are contributing to the rise and rise of our new 'old' Werribee with the improvements in open spaces, carparking, streets and community facilities and of course the changing face of our CBD area. Watton Street is enjoying more traffic I believe as a result of the closure of Cherry Street rail crossing. Growth of all kinds brings more growth and this certainly bodes well for our commercial and business district into the near and intermediate future.

Patrick Conheady

In this blog appearing below, we have decided it is worthwhile to show how prices for houses in Werribee and our local suburbs have increased over the last 11 years. Therefore we have devoted a lot of space to providing you with big graphs to best illustrate what has occurred. We will do the same for housing numbers for sale in our next update.

Patrick Conheady

Werribee - Postcode 3030 March 8th, 2021. As I predicted in last months same chart, Werribee 3030 has seen a reduction in the number of houses for sale. Seller's have accepted lower prices and there is less stock for buyers to choose from. As a result the pricing cycle will now move to the next phase of low numbers of houses for sale resulting in a price rise for this part of Wyndham. The Asking Prices graph captures this movement accurately with a uptick in the latest monthly data. This is a very good illustration of a micro housing market working within a greater sized market because there is no guarantee of this phenomena being repeated even within our greater Wyndham housing market. A good example of why national and state trends need to be viewed with some caution until local research is done by both potential sellers and buyers.

Patrick Conheady

Hoppers Crossing & Tarneit - Postcode 3029 March 8th, 2021. Unlike postcode 3030 the number of houses for sale in February 2021 is greater than for same month, 2020. This shows through to the top graph in the Asking Prices data; more houses to choose from keeps the negotiating power with buyers, not sellers. There has been a large number of new listings for February but housing stock over 30 days on market has shown a decline in numbers across all categories (30-60 days, 60-90 days, etc). It is my suspicion and nothing more at the moment that the greater proportion of new listings have come from Tarneit suburb and a lower a lower number from Hoppers Crossing. Further study is required on yet another example of a micro housing market within a larger market and I hope to get this analysis done for next month. Asking Price data indicates in all three other categories seen in the graph on the left has shown a steady rise over the last few months.

Patrick Conheady

Wyndham Vale & Manor Lakes - Postcode 3024 March 8th, 2021. The number of new listings for Postcode 3024 continue to be very high. However, days on market in the categories of 30-60 days and 60-90 days are showing a gradual decline in numbers. The segments of 90-180 days and over 180 days are stubbornly high and consistently so. If house listings in these two segments were to decrease by some of this stock being sold than 3024 would become a much more volatile housing market. Higher velocity will result in higher prices due to the FMO factor kicking in (Fear of Missing Out).The Asking Prices data is very healthy over the last few months.

Patrick Conheady

General Summary of 2020 and Conclusion of our First Month of 2021.

The first point I would like to make is that national and state wide media hype regarding up to 10% price increases for residential property are as usual very misleading. Within Wyndham LGA residential property sales prices in both Werribee 3030 and Hoppers Crossing/Tarneit have at very best remained the same and in fact overall have been on a slight decline throughout 2020. The local suburbs to really standout in my opinion are found in Postcode 3024 being Wyndham Vale and Manor Lakes. Postcode 3024 has shown upward trends in both sale price and number of properties for sale.

My opinion based on the property experts I follow and trust is we will move into a period of rising home prices, even if this takes until late 2021 and early 2022. This prediction is based on continuing low interest rates, governments in USA, Australia and elsewhere running huge deficits attempting to avoid global economic collapse and a huge spend on public infrastructure around Australia (all financed by more debt) but that is a story for another day. The only concerns are of course how our national economy responds to decreasing government financial support to individuals and business, plus the hoped for control of COVID-19.

Finally, ask your local real estate agent to provide proof of actual sale prices in your suburb and ignore what you read in an unreliable media.

Werribee - Postcode 3030 February 5th, 2021. The graphs for Werribee 3030 are quite informative. New listing numbers have dramatically declined since peaking in September, 2020. As a result over the 2021 year Werribee 3030 prices have slowly increased to be back to levels last seen at around the market peak of late 2018. See Werribee 3030 Asking Prices graph to right. Overall days on market have remained pretty constant except for new listings which have sold quickly. I would expect to now see some older listings being sold because A/ Seller's price expectations will have reduced in many cases and B/ there is less stock in Werribee 3030 for buyers to choose from.

Patrick Conheady

Hoppers Crossing & Tarneit - Postcode 3029 February 5th, 2021
Unlike Werribee, Postcode 3029 has experienced a slight decline in prices over the 2020 calendar year. The older listings in Postcode 3029 are showing stubborn resistance to buyer interest. Listing numbers peaked in November of 2020. Overall listing numbers in all categories of Days on Market have steadily increased and there can really be only two reasons: 1/ Seller's prices are too high and/or Buyer's have moved their focus to other locations within Wyndham LGA (notably Manor Lakes). I would suggest deeper study of this Postcode by separating Hoppers Crossing data from Tarneit data would prove very enlightening. Anecdotally home sales in and around Pacific Shopping Centre are showing strong demand.

Patrick Conheady

Wyndham Vale & Manor Lakes - Postcode 3024 February 5th, 2021
Quite an unexpected result for Postcode 3024 for year 2020. Overall price went up and so did sales numbers. Even Days on Market have decreased marginally despite a three year upwards trend. Postcode 3024 is achieving sale prices currently equal to the last state wide peak in late 2018. Considering so much of Postcode 3024 is so relatively new this is a very good result for local property owners.

Patrick Conheady